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Chanthaburi vs Khon Kaen United — Thai League 2 2018

Chanthaburi
Chanthaburi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Khon Kaen United
Khon Kaen United
10/5/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 8Chanthaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Chanthaburi44%
×Draw25%
Khon Kaen United31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chanthaburi
1.54
Khon Kaen United
1.25

Chanthaburi creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 35 away

creates per match

Chanthaburi
1.47
Khon Kaen United
1.40

allows per match

Chanthaburi
1.10
Khon Kaen United
1.60

finishing

Chanthaburi+0.00on par
Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chanthaburi ↓

Khon Kaen United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chanthaburi or draw
69%
Chanthaburi or Khon Kaen United
75%
Draw or Khon Kaen United
56%

Winning margin

Chanthaburi wins by 2+
22%
Khon Kaen United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chanthaburi 1+ goals
79%
Chanthaburi 2+ goals
45%
Chanthaburi 3+ goals
20%
Khon Kaen United 1+ goals
71%
Khon Kaen United 2+ goals
36%
Khon Kaen United 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chanthaburi (draw refunded)
59%
Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chanthaburi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chanthaburi attack 1.47 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Khon Kaen United attack 1.40 + Chanthaburi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chanthaburi scores more
44%
level
25%
Khon Kaen United scores more
31%

Chanthaburi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chanthaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chanthaburi vs Khon Kaen United

Chanthaburi beat Khon Kaen United 2-1 in Thai League 2 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Chanthaburi Stadium in Chanthaburi.