Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chanthaburi vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chanthaburi
Chanthaburi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
8/17/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 2Chanthaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chanthaburi53%
×Draw24%
Kasetsart FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chanthaburi
1.66
Kasetsart FC
0.99

Chanthaburi creates 68% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 132 away

creates per match

Chanthaburi
1.47
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Chanthaburi
1.10
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Chanthaburi+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chanthaburi ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chanthaburi or draw
77%
Chanthaburi or Kasetsart FC
76%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
47%

Winning margin

Chanthaburi wins by 2+
29%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chanthaburi 1+ goals
81%
Chanthaburi 2+ goals
49%
Chanthaburi 3+ goals
23%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
63%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
26%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chanthaburi (draw refunded)
70%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chanthaburi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chanthaburi attack 1.47 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.66

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Chanthaburi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chanthaburi scores more
53%
level
24%
Kasetsart FC scores more
23%

Chanthaburi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chanthaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chanthaburi 1–2 Kasetsart FC

Kasetsart FC beat Chanthaburi 2-1 in Thai League 2 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Chanthaburi Stadium in Chanthaburi.