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Chanthaburi vs Bangkok — Thai League 2 2018

Chanthaburi
Chanthaburi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bangkok
Bangkok
3/7/2026Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 29Chanthaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chanthaburi48%
×Draw24%
Bangkok28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chanthaburi
1.71
Bangkok
1.26

Chanthaburi creates 36% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

creates per match

Chanthaburi
1.47
Bangkok
1.42

allows per match

Chanthaburi
1.10
Bangkok
1.94

finishing

Chanthaburi+0.00on par
Bangkok+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chanthaburi ↓

Bangkok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chanthaburi or draw
72%
Chanthaburi or Bangkok
76%
Draw or Bangkok
52%

Winning margin

Chanthaburi wins by 2+
26%
Bangkok wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chanthaburi 1+ goals
82%
Chanthaburi 2+ goals
51%
Chanthaburi 3+ goals
24%
Bangkok 1+ goals
72%
Bangkok 2+ goals
36%
Bangkok 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chanthaburi (draw refunded)
63%
Bangkok (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chanthaburi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Bangkok away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chanthaburi attack 1.47 + Bangkok defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bangkok attack 1.42 + Chanthaburi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chanthaburi scores more
48%
level
24%
Bangkok scores more
28%

Chanthaburi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chanthaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chanthaburi vs Bangkok

Bangkok beat Chanthaburi 2-1 in Thai League 2 on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Chanthaburi Stadium in Chanthaburi.