Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Changwon City vs Sangju Sangmu FC — FA Cup 2019

Changwon City
Changwon City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sangju Sangmu FC
Sangju Sangmu FCadvanced
7/2/2019FA CupFA Cup · Quarter-finalsChangwon Football Center 2 Stadium (Changwon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Changwon City44%
×Draw23%
Sangju Sangmu FC33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changwon City
1.75
Sangju Sangmu FC
1.50

Changwon City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Changwon City
2.50
Sangju Sangmu FC
1.60

allows per match

Changwon City
1.40
Sangju Sangmu FC
1.00

finishing

Changwon City+0.00on par
Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changwon City ↓

Sangju Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Changwon City or draw
67%
Changwon City or Sangju Sangmu FC
77%
Draw or Sangju Sangmu FC
56%

Winning margin

Changwon City wins by 2+
23%
Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Changwon City 1+ goals
83%
Changwon City 2+ goals
52%
Changwon City 3+ goals
25%
Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals
78%
Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals
44%
Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Changwon City (draw refunded)
57%
Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changwon City at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Sangju Sangmu FC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changwon City attack 2.50 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.60 + Changwon City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Changwon City scores more
44%
level
23%
Sangju Sangmu FC scores more
33%

Changwon City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Changwon City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Changwon City vs Sangju Sangmu FC

Sangju Sangmu FC beat Changwon City 2-1 in FA Cup on July 2, 2019.

The match was played at Changwon Football Center 2 Stadium (Changwon).