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Changwon City vs Gyeongju Citizen — K3 League 2026

Changwon City
Changwon City
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gyeongju Citizen
Gyeongju Citizen
9/26/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Relegation Round - 3Changwon Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Changwon City48%
×Draw27%
Gyeongju Citizen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changwon City
1.40
Gyeongju Citizen
0.94

Changwon City creates 49% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 12 away

creates per match

Changwon City
1.12
Gyeongju Citizen
0.83

allows per match

Changwon City
1.04
Gyeongju Citizen
1.67

finishing

Changwon City+0.00on par
Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changwon City ↓

Gyeongju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Changwon City or draw
75%
Changwon City or Gyeongju Citizen
73%
Draw or Gyeongju Citizen
52%

Winning margin

Changwon City wins by 2+
23%
Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Changwon City 1+ goals
75%
Changwon City 2+ goals
41%
Changwon City 3+ goals
17%
Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals
61%
Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals
24%
Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Changwon City (draw refunded)
65%
Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changwon City at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Gyeongju Citizen away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changwon City attack 1.12 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.83 + Changwon City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Changwon City scores more
48%
level
27%
Gyeongju Citizen scores more
25%

Changwon City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Changwon City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Changwon City 4–0 Gyeongju Citizen

Changwon City beat Gyeongju Citizen 4-0 in K3 League on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Changwon Civil Stadium in Changwon.