Changning Flying Lions 2–0 Yichun Grand Tiger

Changning Flying Lions

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yichun Grand Tiger

4/20/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundShanghai East China University of Science and Technology Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Changning Flying Lions53%

×Draw25%

Yichun Grand Tiger23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Changning Flying LionsExpected goals in this matchYichun Grand Tiger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.00

Changning Flying Lions

1.65

Yichun Grand Tiger

1.00

Changning Flying Lions creates 65% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Changning Flying Lions

1.80

Yichun Grand Tiger

1.00

allows per match

Changning Flying Lions

1.00

Yichun Grand Tiger

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Changning Flying Lions+0.00on par

Yichun Grand Tiger+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changning Flying Lions ↓

Yichun Grand Tiger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Changning Flying Lions or draw

77%

Changning Flying Lions or Yichun Grand Tiger

75%

Draw or Yichun Grand Tiger

47%

Winning margin

Changning Flying Lions wins by 2+

28%

Yichun Grand Tiger wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Changning Flying Lions 1+ goals

81%

Changning Flying Lions 2+ goals

49%

Changning Flying Lions 3+ goals

23%

Yichun Grand Tiger 1+ goals

63%

Yichun Grand Tiger 2+ goals

26%

Yichun Grand Tiger 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Changning Flying Lions (draw refunded)

70%

Yichun Grand Tiger (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changning Flying Lions at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Yichun Grand Tiger away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changning Flying Lions attack 1.80 + Yichun Grand Tiger defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Yichun Grand Tiger attack 1.00 + Changning Flying Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Changning Flying Lions scores more

53%

level

25%

Yichun Grand Tiger scores more

23%

Changning Flying Lions at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Changning Flying Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff