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Changning Flying Lions vs Nantong Haimen Codion — FA Cup 2019

Changning Flying Lions
Changning Flying Lions
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Nantong Haimen Codion
Nantong Haimen Codion
3/15/2025FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundLedongli Lingang Football Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Changning Flying Lions46%
×Draw27%
Nantong Haimen Codion27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changning Flying Lions
1.40
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.00

Changning Flying Lions creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Changning Flying Lions
1.80
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.00

allows per match

Changning Flying Lions
1.00
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.00

finishing

Changning Flying Lions+0.00on par
Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changning Flying Lions ↓

Nantong Haimen Codion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Changning Flying Lions or draw
73%
Changning Flying Lions or Nantong Haimen Codion
73%
Draw or Nantong Haimen Codion
54%

Winning margin

Changning Flying Lions wins by 2+
22%
Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Changning Flying Lions 1+ goals
75%
Changning Flying Lions 2+ goals
41%
Changning Flying Lions 3+ goals
17%
Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals
63%
Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals
26%
Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Changning Flying Lions (draw refunded)
63%
Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changning Flying Lions at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Nantong Haimen Codion away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changning Flying Lions attack 1.80 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.00 + Changning Flying Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Changning Flying Lions scores more
46%
level
27%
Nantong Haimen Codion scores more
27%

Changning Flying Lions at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Changning Flying Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Changning Flying Lions vs Nantong Haimen Codion

Nantong Haimen Codion beat Changning Flying Lions 3-0 in FA Cup on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Ledongli Lingang Football Sports Center in Shanghai.