Changning Flying Lions 1–1 Chengdu Better City

Changning Flying Lions

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Chengdu Better City

6/21/2024

FA Cup · 4th RoundShanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Changning Flying Lions35%

×Draw25%

Chengdu Better City40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Changning Flying LionsExpected goals in this matchChengdu Better City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.46

Changning Flying Lions

1.36

Chengdu Better City

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.80

creates per match

1.92

1.00

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Changning Flying Lions

1.80

Chengdu Better City

1.92

allows per match

Changning Flying Lions

1.00

Chengdu Better City

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Changning Flying Lions+0.00on par

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changning Flying Lions ↓

Chengdu Better City →

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Changning Flying Lions or draw

60%

Changning Flying Lions or Chengdu Better City

75%

Draw or Chengdu Better City

65%

Winning margin

Changning Flying Lions wins by 2+

16%

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Changning Flying Lions 1+ goals

74%

Changning Flying Lions 2+ goals

39%

Changning Flying Lions 3+ goals

16%

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

77%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

43%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Changning Flying Lions (draw refunded)

47%

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Changning Flying Lions at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Changning Flying Lions attack 1.80 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.36

Chengdu Better City attack 1.92 + Changning Flying Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Changning Flying Lions scores more

35%

level

25%

Chengdu Better City scores more

40%

Chengdu Better City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff