Changchun Yatai 1–2 Xinjiang Tianshan

Changchun Yatai

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Xinjiang Tianshan

9/7/2019

League One · Round 23Changchun's People Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Changchun Yatai60%

×Draw22%

Xinjiang Tianshan18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Changchun YataiExpected goals in this matchXinjiang Tianshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.89

Changchun Yatai

1.85

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.89

Changchun Yatai creates 108% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 72 away

1.55

creates per match

0.63

1.14

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Changchun Yatai

1.55

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.63

allows per match

Changchun Yatai

1.14

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw

82%

Changchun Yatai or Xinjiang Tianshan

78%

Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan

40%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+

35%

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals

84%

Changchun Yatai 2+ goals

55%

Changchun Yatai 3+ goals

28%

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

59%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

22%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)

77%

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.55 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.85

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more

60%

level

22%

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

18%

Changchun Yatai at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff