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Changchun Yatai vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic — League One 2018

Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
6/16/2019League OneLeague One · Round 13Changchun's People Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Changchun Yatai37%
×Draw27%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changchun Yatai
1.30
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 57 away

creates per match

Changchun Yatai
1.55
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.42

allows per match

Changchun Yatai
1.14
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.05

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par
Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw
64%
Changchun Yatai or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
73%
Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
63%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
17%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
73%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
37%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
14%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
72%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
37%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
51%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.55 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.30

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more
37%
level
27%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
36%

Changchun Yatai at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Changchun Yatai 3–2 Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Changchun Yatai beat Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3-2 in League One on June 16, 2019.

The match was played at Changchun's People Stadium in Changchun.