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Changchun Yatai vs Jiangsu Suning — Super League 2018

Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Jiangsu Suning
Jiangsu Suning
9/29/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Changchun Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Changchun Yatai38%
×Draw25%
Jiangsu Suning37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changchun Yatai
1.45
Jiangsu Suning
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 39 away

creates per match

Changchun Yatai
1.44
Jiangsu Suning
1.54

allows per match

Changchun Yatai
1.33
Jiangsu Suning
1.46

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par
Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Jiangsu Suning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw
63%
Changchun Yatai or Jiangsu Suning
75%
Draw or Jiangsu Suning
62%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
18%
Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
77%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
42%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
18%
Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals
76%
Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals
42%
Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
50%
Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 88 matches

Jiangsu Suning away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.44 + Jiangsu Suning defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.45

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.54 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more
38%
level
25%
Jiangsu Suning scores more
37%

Changchun Yatai at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Changchun Yatai 2–5 Jiangsu Suning

Jiangsu Suning beat Changchun Yatai 5-2 in Super League on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Changchun Sports Center in Changchun.