Changchun Yatai 4–1 Guangzhou R&F: Result & Stats

Changchun Yatai

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Guangzhou R&F

Tan Long 66', 34', 22'

Júnior Negrão 52'

Wu Chengru 90'

6/4/2022

Super League · Round 1Wuyuan River Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Changchun Yatai46%

×Draw25%

Guangzhou R&F29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Changchun YataiExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou R&F

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.24

Changchun Yatai

1.61

Guangzhou R&F

1.24

Changchun Yatai creates 30% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 68 away

1.44

creates per match

1.15

1.33

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Changchun Yatai

1.44

Guangzhou R&F

1.15

allows per match

Changchun Yatai

1.33

Guangzhou R&F

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Guangzhou R&F →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw

71%

Changchun Yatai or Guangzhou R&F

75%

Draw or Guangzhou R&F

54%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+

24%

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals

80%

Changchun Yatai 2+ goals

48%

Changchun Yatai 3+ goals

22%

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

71%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

35%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)

61%

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 88 matches

Guangzhou R&F away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.44 + Guangzhou R&F defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.61

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.15 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more

46%

level

25%

Guangzhou R&F scores more

29%

Changchun Yatai at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Tan Long

Changchun Yatai · M

9.2

Match Events

22'

Tan Long↳ Erik

34'

Tan Long↳ Liao Chengjian

46'

Wang Jinxian← Li Guangwen

46'

Wang Peng← Huang Zhengyu

52'

Júnior Negrão↳ Tan Long

59'

Dilyimit Tudi

60'

Jin Bo← Chen Zhizhao

61'

Zhang Yufeng← Liao Chengjian

61'

D. Ndlovu← Júnior Negrão

61'

Cui Qi← Han Pengfei

61'

Gui Hong← Fan Yunlong

66'

Tan Long↳ D. Ndlovu

69'

Wu Chengru← Wen Yongjun

73'

Huang Yushen← Dilyimit Tudi

76'

Peng Wang

81'

Wei Feng← Chun Lok Tan

90'

Wu Chengru↳ Gui Hong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChangchunGuangzhou

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots7

5Corners1

11Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots7

5On Target5

4Off Target2

4Blocked0

9Inside Box2

4Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

362Total Passes553

319Accurate Passes492

88%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1