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Changchun Yatai vs Chongqing Lifan — Super League 2018

Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
10/27/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Changchun Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Changchun Yatai45%
×Draw24%
Chongqing Lifan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changchun Yatai
1.61
Chongqing Lifan
1.29

Changchun Yatai creates 25% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 50 away

creates per match

Changchun Yatai
1.44
Chongqing Lifan
1.24

allows per match

Changchun Yatai
1.33
Chongqing Lifan
1.78

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par
Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Chongqing Lifan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw
69%
Changchun Yatai or Chongqing Lifan
76%
Draw or Chongqing Lifan
55%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
23%
Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
80%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
48%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
22%
Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
72%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
37%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
59%
Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 88 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.44 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more
45%
level
24%
Chongqing Lifan scores more
31%

Changchun Yatai at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Changchun Yatai 1–2 Chongqing Lifan

Chongqing Lifan beat Changchun Yatai 2-1 in Super League on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Changchun Sports Center in Changchun.