Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chambly Thelle FC vs Racing Colombes 92 — Coupe de France 2018

Chambly Thelle FC
Chambly Thelle FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Colombes 92
Racing Colombes 92advanced
1/5/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Walter Luzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chambly Thelle FC25%
×Draw22%
Racing Colombes 9253%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chambly Thelle FC
1.33
Racing Colombes 92
2.00

Racing Colombes 92 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chambly Thelle FC
1.67
Racing Colombes 92
2.33

allows per match

Chambly Thelle FC
1.67
Racing Colombes 92
1.00

finishing

Chambly Thelle FC+0.00on par
Racing Colombes 92+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chambly Thelle FC ↓

Racing Colombes 92 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chambly Thelle FC or draw
47%
Chambly Thelle FC or Racing Colombes 92
78%
Draw or Racing Colombes 92
75%

Winning margin

Chambly Thelle FC wins by 2+
11%
Racing Colombes 92 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Chambly Thelle FC 1+ goals
74%
Chambly Thelle FC 2+ goals
38%
Chambly Thelle FC 3+ goals
15%
Racing Colombes 92 1+ goals
86%
Racing Colombes 92 2+ goals
59%
Racing Colombes 92 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Chambly Thelle FC (draw refunded)
32%
Racing Colombes 92 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chambly Thelle FC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Racing Colombes 92 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chambly Thelle FC attack 1.67 + Racing Colombes 92 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Racing Colombes 92 attack 2.33 + Chambly Thelle FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chambly Thelle FC scores more
25%
level
22%
Racing Colombes 92 scores more
53%

Racing Colombes 92 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Racing Colombes 92 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Chambly Thelle FC 1–2 Racing Colombes 92

Racing Colombes 92 beat Chambly Thelle FC 2-1 in Coupe de France on January 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Walter Luzi in Chambly.