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Chambéry vs Toulouse — Coupe de France 2018

Chambéry
Chambéry
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Toulouse
Toulouseadvanced
1/7/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Municipal de Chambéry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Chambéry22%
×Draw21%
Toulouse56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chambéry
1.19
Toulouse
2.02

Toulouse creates 70% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

creates per match

Chambéry
1.30
Toulouse
2.14

allows per match

Chambéry
1.90
Toulouse
1.07

finishing

Chambéry+0.00on par
Toulouse+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chambéry ↓

Toulouse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Chambéry or draw
44%
Chambéry or Toulouse
79%
Draw or Toulouse
78%

Winning margin

Chambéry wins by 2+
9%
Toulouse wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Chambéry 1+ goals
70%
Chambéry 2+ goals
33%
Chambéry 3+ goals
12%
Toulouse 1+ goals
87%
Toulouse 2+ goals
60%
Toulouse 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Chambéry (draw refunded)
28%
Toulouse (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chambéry at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Toulouse away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chambéry attack 1.30 + Toulouse defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Toulouse attack 2.14 + Chambéry defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chambéry scores more
22%
level
21%
Toulouse scores more
56%

Toulouse at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Chambéry 0–3 Toulouse

Toulouse beat Chambéry 3-0 in Coupe de France on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Chambéry in Chambéry.