Chambéry 0–3 Lyon: Result & Stats | Coupe de France

Chambéry

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Lyon

1/21/2023

Coupe de France · Round of 32Groupama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Chambéry16%

×Draw19%

Lyon65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChambéryExpected goals in this matchLyon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.24

Chambéry

1.02

Lyon

2.24

Lyon creates 120% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.30

creates per match

2.58

1.90

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Chambéry

1.30

Lyon

2.58

allows per match

Chambéry

1.90

Lyon

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chambéry+0.00on par

Lyon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chambéry ↓

Lyon →

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chambéry or draw

35%

Chambéry or Lyon

81%

Draw or Lyon

84%

Winning margin

Chambéry wins by 2+

Lyon wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Chambéry 1+ goals

64%

Chambéry 2+ goals

27%

Chambéry 3+ goals

Lyon 1+ goals

89%

Lyon 2+ goals

65%

Lyon 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Chambéry (draw refunded)

20%

Lyon (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chambéry at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Lyon away — creates 2.58, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chambéry attack 1.30 + Lyon defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

Lyon attack 2.58 + Chambéry defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Chambéry scores more

16%

level

19%

Lyon scores more

65%

Lyon at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lyon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff