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Chambéry vs Bourgoin-Jallieu — Coupe de France 2018

Chambéry
Chambéry
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bourgoin-Jallieu
Bourgoin-Jallieu
10/29/2022Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundPlaine De Jeux Mager 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chambéry26%
×Draw21%
Bourgoin-Jallieu53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chambéry
1.40
Bourgoin-Jallieu
2.08

Bourgoin-Jallieu creates 49% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Chambéry
1.30
Bourgoin-Jallieu
2.25

allows per match

Chambéry
1.90
Bourgoin-Jallieu
1.50

finishing

Chambéry+0.00on par
Bourgoin-Jallieu+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chambéry ↓

Bourgoin-Jallieu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Chambéry or draw
47%
Chambéry or Bourgoin-Jallieu
79%
Draw or Bourgoin-Jallieu
74%

Winning margin

Chambéry wins by 2+
11%
Bourgoin-Jallieu wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Chambéry 1+ goals
75%
Chambéry 2+ goals
41%
Chambéry 3+ goals
17%
Bourgoin-Jallieu 1+ goals
87%
Bourgoin-Jallieu 2+ goals
61%
Bourgoin-Jallieu 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Chambéry (draw refunded)
33%
Bourgoin-Jallieu (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chambéry at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Bourgoin-Jallieu away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chambéry attack 1.30 + Bourgoin-Jallieu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bourgoin-Jallieu attack 2.25 + Chambéry defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chambéry scores more
26%
level
21%
Bourgoin-Jallieu scores more
53%

Bourgoin-Jallieu at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bourgoin-Jallieu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chambéry vs Bourgoin-Jallieu

Chambéry and Bourgoin-Jallieu drew 1-1 in Coupe de France on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Plaine De Jeux Mager 1 in Chambery.