Chambéry 4–6 Auxerre: Result & Stats

Chambéry

4 – 6

HT: 1 – 4

Auxerre

11/27/2021

Coupe de France · 8th RoundPlaine De Jeux Mager 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chambéry22%

×Draw19%

Auxerre59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChambéryExpected goals in this matchAuxerre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.45

Chambéry

1.46

Auxerre

2.45

Auxerre creates 68% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.30

creates per match

3.00

1.90

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Chambéry

1.30

Auxerre

3.00

allows per match

Chambéry

1.90

Auxerre

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chambéry+0.00on par

Auxerre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chambéry ↓

Auxerre →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Chambéry or draw

41%

Chambéry or Auxerre

81%

Draw or Auxerre

78%

Winning margin

Chambéry wins by 2+

10%

Auxerre wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Chambéry 1+ goals

77%

Chambéry 2+ goals

43%

Chambéry 3+ goals

18%

Auxerre 1+ goals

91%

Auxerre 2+ goals

70%

Auxerre 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Chambéry (draw refunded)

27%

Auxerre (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chambéry at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Auxerre away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chambéry attack 1.30 + Auxerre defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Auxerre attack 3.00 + Chambéry defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chambéry scores more

22%

level

19%

Auxerre scores more

59%

Auxerre at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Auxerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff