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Chamalières vs Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03 — League #1029 2026

Chamalières
Chamalières
FT
1 – 1
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03
9/6/2025League #1029League #1029 · Group G -- 3Complexe Sportif Claude Wolff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chamalières69%
×Draw20%
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 0312%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chamalières
2.00
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03
0.67

Chamalières creates 199% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chamalières
1.67
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03
0.33

allows per match

Chamalières
1.00
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03
2.33

finishing

Chamalières+0.00on par
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chamalières ↓

Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chamalières or draw
88%
Chamalières or Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03
80%
Draw or Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03
31%

Winning margin

Chamalières wins by 2+
43%
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chamalières 1+ goals
86%
Chamalières 2+ goals
59%
Chamalières 3+ goals
32%
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03 1+ goals
49%
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03 2+ goals
15%
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chamalières (draw refunded)
86%
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chamalières at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chamalières attack 1.67 + Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03 attack 0.33 + Chamalières defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Chamalières scores more
69%
level
20%
Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03 scores more
12%

Chamalières at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Chamalières will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Chamalières
Moulins-Yzeure
K. Pradier
Manager: K. Pradier
P. Degironde
Manager: P. Degironde

Match Recap: Chamalières vs Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03

Chamalières and Moulins-Yzeure Foot 03 drew 1-1 in League #1029 on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Claude Wolff in Chamalières.