Cham 1–1 Würzburger FV: Result & Stats

Cham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Würzburger FV

3/15/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 25Kappenberger Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Cham57%

×Draw21%

Würzburger FV22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChamExpected goals in this matchWürzburger FV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.21

Cham

2.05

Würzburger FV

1.21

Cham creates 69% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

2.10

creates per match

1.31

1.10

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Cham

2.10

Würzburger FV

1.31

allows per match

Cham

1.10

Würzburger FV

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cham+0.00on par

Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Würzburger FV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Cham or draw

78%

Cham or Würzburger FV

79%

Draw or Würzburger FV

43%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+

34%

Würzburger FV wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals

87%

Cham 2+ goals

61%

Cham 3+ goals

33%

Würzburger FV 1+ goals

70%

Würzburger FV 2+ goals

34%

Würzburger FV 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)

72%

Würzburger FV (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 2.10 + Würzburger FV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Würzburger FV attack 1.31 + Cham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cham scores more

57%

level

21%

Würzburger FV scores more

22%

Cham at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff