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Cham vs Köniz — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Cham
Cham
FT
4 – 0
Köniz
Köniz
10/3/20201. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 9Stadion Eizmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Cham60%
×Draw19%
Köniz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
2.40
Köniz
1.38

Cham creates 74% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cham
1.95
Köniz
1.20

allows per match

Cham
1.55
Köniz
2.85

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Cham or draw
79%
Cham or Köniz
81%
Draw or Köniz
40%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
38%
Köniz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
91%
Cham 2+ goals
69%
Cham 3+ goals
42%
Köniz 1+ goals
75%
Köniz 2+ goals
40%
Köniz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
74%
Köniz (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 105 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 1.95 + Köniz defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.40

Köniz attack 1.20 + Cham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cham scores more
60%
level
19%
Köniz scores more
21%

Cham at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Cham 4–0 Köniz

Cham beat Köniz 4-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Eizmoos in Cham.