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Cham vs Jahn Regensburg II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Cham
Cham
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
8/31/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 9Kappenberger Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Cham54%
×Draw22%
Jahn Regensburg II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
2.00
Jahn Regensburg II
1.28

Cham creates 56% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Cham
2.10
Jahn Regensburg II
1.46

allows per match

Cham
1.10
Jahn Regensburg II
1.90

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Jahn Regensburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cham or draw
76%
Cham or Jahn Regensburg II
78%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg II
46%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
32%
Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
86%
Cham 2+ goals
59%
Cham 3+ goals
32%
Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
72%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
37%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
69%
Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Jahn Regensburg II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.90 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 2.10 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.00

Jahn Regensburg II attack 1.46 + Cham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cham scores more
54%
level
22%
Jahn Regensburg II scores more
24%

Cham at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Cham 4–1 Jahn Regensburg II

Cham beat Jahn Regensburg II 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Kappenberger Sportzentrum in Cham.