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Cham vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Cham
Cham
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
7/20/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1Kappenberger Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cham52%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Regensburg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
1.98
Fortuna Regensburg
1.36

Cham creates 46% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Cham
2.10
Fortuna Regensburg
1.63

allows per match

Cham
1.10
Fortuna Regensburg
1.86

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Cham or draw
74%
Cham or Fortuna Regensburg
78%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
48%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
30%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
86%
Cham 2+ goals
59%
Cham 3+ goals
31%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
74%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
39%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
66%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 2.10 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + Cham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cham scores more
52%
level
22%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
26%

Cham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Cham 5–2 Fortuna Regensburg

Cham beat Fortuna Regensburg 5-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Kappenberger Sportzentrum in Cham.