Cham 0–1 FC Chiasso: Result & Stats

Cham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Chiasso

S. Mattei 16'

9/17/2022

1. Liga Promotion · Round 7Stadion Eizmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cham38%

×Draw24%

FC Chiasso39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChamExpected goals in this matchFC Chiasso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.60

Cham

1.57

FC Chiasso

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 26 away

1.95

creates per match

1.65

1.55

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Cham

1.95

FC Chiasso

1.65

allows per match

Cham

1.55

FC Chiasso

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cham+0.00on par

FC Chiasso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

FC Chiasso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Cham or draw

61%

Cham or FC Chiasso

76%

Draw or FC Chiasso

62%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+

18%

FC Chiasso wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals

79%

Cham 2+ goals

46%

Cham 3+ goals

21%

FC Chiasso 1+ goals

80%

FC Chiasso 2+ goals

47%

FC Chiasso 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)

49%

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 105 matches

FC Chiasso away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 1.95 + FC Chiasso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.57

FC Chiasso attack 1.65 + Cham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cham scores more

38%

level

24%

FC Chiasso scores more

39%

FC Chiasso at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

K. Rothlisberger

16'

S. Mattei

39'

N. Kame

45+1'

J. Miranda

46'

R. Nivokazi← R. Nivokazi

56'

F. Niederhauser

60'

A. Molliqaj← M. Pasquarelli

60'

D. Bezziccheri← D. Bezziccheri

68'

C. Anelli

77'

R. Nivokazi

81'

F. Solimando← F. Solimando

85'

L. Thoni← L. Thoni

86'

S. Maroufi← S. Maroufi

88'

S. Tschopp

90+1'

F. Ronchetti← F. Ronchetti

90+5'

E. Balaj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff