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Cham vs Eichstätt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Cham
Cham
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Eichstätt
Eichstätt
7/22/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1Kappenberger Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Cham40%
×Draw23%
Eichstätt38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
1.72
Eichstätt
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

creates per match

Cham
2.10
Eichstätt
2.23

allows per match

Cham
1.10
Eichstätt
1.34

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
Eichstätt+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Eichstätt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Cham or draw
62%
Cham or Eichstätt
77%
Draw or Eichstätt
60%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
20%
Eichstätt wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
82%
Cham 2+ goals
51%
Cham 3+ goals
25%
Eichstätt 1+ goals
81%
Eichstätt 2+ goals
50%
Eichstätt 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
51%
Eichstätt (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Eichstätt away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 2.10 + Eichstätt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.72

Eichstätt attack 2.23 + Cham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cham scores more
40%
level
23%
Eichstätt scores more
38%

Cham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Cham 4–1 Eichstätt

Cham beat Eichstätt 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Kappenberger Sportzentrum in Cham.