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Cham vs Delémont — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Cham
Cham
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Delémont
Delémont
3/9/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 22Stadion Eizmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cham51%
×Draw22%
Delémont27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
1.90
Delémont
1.33

Cham creates 43% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 34 away

creates per match

Cham
1.95
Delémont
1.12

allows per match

Cham
1.55
Delémont
1.85

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
Delémont+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Delémont →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Cham or draw
73%
Cham or Delémont
78%
Draw or Delémont
49%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
29%
Delémont wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
85%
Cham 2+ goals
56%
Cham 3+ goals
29%
Delémont 1+ goals
74%
Delémont 2+ goals
38%
Delémont 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
65%
Delémont (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 105 matches

Delémont away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 1.95 + Delémont defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.90

Delémont attack 1.12 + Cham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cham scores more
51%
level
22%
Delémont scores more
27%

Cham at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Cham 1–2 Delémont

Delémont beat Cham 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Eizmoos in Cham.