Cham 2–0 ATSV Erlangen: Result & Stats

Cham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ATSV Erlangen

T. Stowasser 79', 75'

5/4/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 36Kappenberger Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Cham56%

×Draw22%

ATSV Erlangen22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChamExpected goals in this matchATSV Erlangen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.12

Cham

1.91

ATSV Erlangen

1.12

Cham creates 71% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

2.12

creates per match

1.15

1.09

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Cham

2.12

ATSV Erlangen

1.15

allows per match

Cham

1.09

ATSV Erlangen

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cham+0.00on par

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

ATSV Erlangen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Cham or draw

78%

Cham or ATSV Erlangen

78%

Draw or ATSV Erlangen

44%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+

32%

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals

85%

Cham 2+ goals

57%

Cham 3+ goals

30%

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals

67%

ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals

31%

ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)

72%

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 2.12 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.91

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Cham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cham scores more

56%

level

22%

ATSV Erlangen scores more

22%

Cham at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'

T. Stowasser

79'

T. Stowasser

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff