Chalatenango 3–1 Independiente: Result & Stats

Chalatenango

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Independiente

R. Herrera 73'

C. Foster 41'

J. Henriquez 14'

L. Sanhueza 55'

10/27/2019

Primera Division · Apertura - 16Estadio Jose Gregorio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chalatenango40%

×Draw29%

Independiente31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChalatenangoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.00

Chalatenango

1.18

Independiente

1.00

Chalatenango creates 18% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 17 away

1.18

creates per match

0.82

1.19

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Chalatenango

1.18

Independiente

0.82

allows per match

Chalatenango

1.19

Independiente

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chalatenango+0.00on par

Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chalatenango ↓

Independiente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chalatenango or draw

69%

Chalatenango or Independiente

71%

Draw or Independiente

60%

Winning margin

Chalatenango wins by 2+

17%

Independiente wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chalatenango 1+ goals

69%

Chalatenango 2+ goals

33%

Chalatenango 3+ goals

12%

Independiente 1+ goals

63%

Independiente 2+ goals

26%

Independiente 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chalatenango (draw refunded)

56%

Independiente (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chalatenango at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

Independiente away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chalatenango attack 1.18 + Independiente defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Independiente attack 0.82 + Chalatenango defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chalatenango scores more

40%

level

29%

Independiente scores more

31%

Chalatenango at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chalatenango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

J. Henriquez

41'

C. Foster

46'

E. Rodríguez← E. Benítez

53'

Ever Flores← C. Gómez

55'

L. Sanhueza

60'

B. Landaverde← J. Henriquez

61'

J. Umanzor← W. Canales

73'

R. Herrera

78'

E. Hurtado← R. Herrera

80'

84'

J. Ortega← C. Foster

Chalatenango

Independiente

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Henriquez

Flores

⚽

▼

Herrera

⚽

▼

Foster

Manager: J. Portillo

60'▲B. Landaverde←▼J. Henriquez

78'▲E. Hurtado←▼R. Herrera

84'▲J. Ortega←▼C. Foster

Chalatenango substitutes

LandaverdeHurtadoOrtega

Manager: E. Flores

46'▲E. Rodríguez←▼E. Benítez

53'▲Ever Flores←▼C. Gómez

61'▲J. Umanzor←▼W. Canales

Independiente substitutes

RodríguezFloresUmanzor

Match Recap: Chalatenango vs Independiente

Chalatenango beat Independiente 3-1 in Primera Division on October 27, 2019.

Goals: J. Henriquez (14'), C. Foster (41'), L. Sanhueza (55'), R. Herrera (73').

The match was played at Estadio Jose Gregorio Martínez in Chalatenango.

Chalatenango vs Independiente — Primera Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chalatenango vs Independiente