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Chalatenango vs Dragón — Primera Division 2019

Chalatenango
Chalatenango
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dragón
Dragón
4/9/2023Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 15Estadio Jose Gregorio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Chalatenango43%
×Draw27%
Dragón29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chalatenango
1.34
Dragón
1.05

Chalatenango creates 28% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 63 away

creates per match

Chalatenango
1.18
Dragón
0.92

allows per match

Chalatenango
1.19
Dragón
1.51

finishing

Chalatenango+0.00on par
Dragón+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chalatenango ↓

Dragón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chalatenango or draw
71%
Chalatenango or Dragón
73%
Draw or Dragón
57%

Winning margin

Chalatenango wins by 2+
20%
Dragón wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chalatenango 1+ goals
74%
Chalatenango 2+ goals
39%
Chalatenango 3+ goals
15%
Dragón 1+ goals
65%
Dragón 2+ goals
28%
Dragón 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chalatenango (draw refunded)
60%
Dragón (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chalatenango at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

Dragón away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.51 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chalatenango attack 1.18 + Dragón defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Dragón attack 0.92 + Chalatenango defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chalatenango scores more
43%
level
27%
Dragón scores more
29%

Chalatenango at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chalatenango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chalatenango vs Dragón

Chalatenango and Dragón drew 2-2 in Primera Division on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Jose Gregorio Martínez in Chalatenango.