Chalatenango 2–2 Atlético Marte: Result & Stats

Chalatenango

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Marte

10/17/2021

Primera Division · Apertura - 1st Phase - 13Estadio Jose Gregorio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Chalatenango45%

×Draw27%

Atlético Marte28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChalatenangoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Marte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.05

Chalatenango

1.40

Atlético Marte

1.05

Chalatenango creates 33% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 56 away

1.18

creates per match

0.91

1.19

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Chalatenango

1.18

Atlético Marte

0.91

allows per match

Chalatenango

1.19

Atlético Marte

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chalatenango+0.00on par

Atlético Marte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chalatenango ↓

Atlético Marte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chalatenango or draw

72%

Chalatenango or Atlético Marte

73%

Draw or Atlético Marte

55%

Winning margin

Chalatenango wins by 2+

21%

Atlético Marte wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chalatenango 1+ goals

75%

Chalatenango 2+ goals

41%

Chalatenango 3+ goals

17%

Atlético Marte 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Marte 2+ goals

28%

Atlético Marte 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chalatenango (draw refunded)

61%

Atlético Marte (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chalatenango at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

Atlético Marte away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chalatenango attack 1.18 + Atlético Marte defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Atlético Marte attack 0.91 + Chalatenango defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chalatenango scores more

45%

level

27%

Atlético Marte scores more

28%

Chalatenango at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chalatenango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff