Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chainat vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Chainat
Chainat
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
11/20/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 14Khao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Chainat52%
×Draw23%
Udon Thani25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chainat
1.78
Udon Thani
1.17

Chainat creates 52% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 82 away

creates per match

Chainat
1.63
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Chainat
1.19
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chainat or draw
75%
Chainat or Udon Thani
77%
Draw or Udon Thani
48%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+
28%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals
83%
Chainat 2+ goals
53%
Chainat 3+ goals
26%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
69%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
33%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)
67%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.78

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chainat scores more
52%
level
23%
Udon Thani scores more
25%

Chainat at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chainat vs Udon Thani

Chainat beat Udon Thani 1-0 in Thai League 2 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Khao Plong Stadium in Chainat.