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Chainat vs Rayong FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chainat
Chainat
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
4/7/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 32Khao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Chainat42%
×Draw25%
Rayong FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chainat
1.54
Rayong FC
1.32

Chainat creates 17% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 84 away

creates per match

Chainat
1.63
Rayong FC
1.45

allows per match

Chainat
1.19
Rayong FC
1.45

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chainat or draw
67%
Chainat or Rayong FC
75%
Draw or Rayong FC
58%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+
21%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals
79%
Chainat 2+ goals
45%
Chainat 3+ goals
20%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
73%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
38%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)
57%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Rayong FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rayong FC attack 1.45 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chainat scores more
42%
level
25%
Rayong FC scores more
33%

Chainat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chainat 0–3 Rayong FC

Rayong FC beat Chainat 3-0 in Thai League 2 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Khao Plong Stadium in Chainat.