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Chainat vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — Thai League 2 2018

Chainat
Chainat
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
11/11/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 12Khao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Chainat42%
×Draw26%
Nong Bua Pitchaya33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chainat
1.46
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.27

Chainat creates 15% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 83 away

creates per match

Chainat
1.63
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.34

allows per match

Chainat
1.19
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.30

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chainat or draw
67%
Chainat or Nong Bua Pitchaya
74%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
58%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+
20%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals
77%
Chainat 2+ goals
43%
Chainat 3+ goals
18%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
72%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
36%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)
56%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chainat scores more
42%
level
26%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
33%

Chainat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chainat 1–2 Nong Bua Pitchaya

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Chainat 2-1 in Thai League 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Khao Plong Stadium in Chainat.