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Chainat vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC — League Cup 2021

Chainat
Chainat
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
10/30/2024League CupLeague Cup · 1st RoundKhao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chainat47%
×Draw23%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chainat
1.85
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.44

Chainat creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chainat
1.20
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
0.67

allows per match

Chainat
2.20
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2.50

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par
Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chainat or draw
70%
Chainat or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
77%
Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
53%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+
26%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals
84%
Chainat 2+ goals
55%
Chainat 3+ goals
28%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals
76%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals
42%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)
61%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.20 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.67 + Chainat defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chainat scores more
47%
level
23%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more
30%

Chainat at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Chainat 3–1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Chainat beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-1 in League Cup on October 30, 2024.

The match was played at Khao Plong Stadium in Chainat.