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Chainat vs Lamphun Warrior — Thai League 2 2018

Chainat
Chainat
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
2/20/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 24Khao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chainat34%
×Draw26%
Lamphun Warrior40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chainat
1.28
Lamphun Warrior
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

creates per match

Chainat
1.63
Lamphun Warrior
1.59

allows per match

Chainat
1.19
Lamphun Warrior
0.94

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chainat or draw
60%
Chainat or Lamphun Warrior
74%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
66%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+
15%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals
72%
Chainat 2+ goals
37%
Chainat 3+ goals
14%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
75%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
40%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)
47%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.28

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.59 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chainat scores more
34%
level
26%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
40%

Lamphun Warrior at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chainat 3–3 Lamphun Warrior

Chainat and Lamphun Warrior drew 3-3 in Thai League 2 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Khao Plong Stadium in Chainat.