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Chainat vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chainat
Chainat
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
11/26/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 13Khao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Chainat44%
×Draw25%
Lampang FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chainat
1.58
Lampang FC
1.29

Chainat creates 22% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 102 away

creates per match

Chainat
1.63
Lampang FC
1.39

allows per match

Chainat
1.19
Lampang FC
1.54

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chainat or draw
69%
Chainat or Lampang FC
75%
Draw or Lampang FC
56%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+
22%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals
79%
Chainat 2+ goals
47%
Chainat 3+ goals
21%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
72%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
37%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)
59%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chainat scores more
44%
level
25%
Lampang FC scores more
31%

Chainat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chainat 2–0 Lampang FC

Chainat beat Lampang FC 2-0 in Thai League 2 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Khao Plong Stadium in Chainat.