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Chainat vs Chonburi FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chainat
Chainat
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Chonburi FC
Chonburi FC
3/9/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 28Khao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Chainat39%
×Draw27%
Chonburi FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chainat
1.31
Chonburi FC
1.19

Chainat creates 10% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 16 away

creates per match

Chainat
1.63
Chonburi FC
1.19

allows per match

Chainat
1.19
Chonburi FC
1.00

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par
Chonburi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Chonburi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chainat or draw
66%
Chainat or Chonburi FC
73%
Draw or Chonburi FC
61%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+
18%
Chonburi FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals
73%
Chainat 2+ goals
38%
Chainat 3+ goals
14%
Chonburi FC 1+ goals
70%
Chonburi FC 2+ goals
33%
Chonburi FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)
54%
Chonburi FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Chonburi FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Chonburi FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Chonburi FC attack 1.19 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chainat scores more
39%
level
27%
Chonburi FC scores more
34%

Chainat at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chainat 1–3 Chonburi FC

Chonburi FC beat Chainat 3-1 in Thai League 2 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Khao Plong Stadium in Chainat.