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Chainat United vs Thai Honda FC — FA Cup 2018

Chainat United
Chainat United
FT
1 – 0
Thai Honda FC
Thai Honda FC
6/27/2018FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chainat United24%
×Draw23%
Thai Honda FC53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chainat United
1.17
Thai Honda FC
1.83

Thai Honda FC creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chainat United
0.67
Thai Honda FC
1.33

allows per match

Chainat United
2.33
Thai Honda FC
1.67

finishing

Chainat United+0.00on par
Thai Honda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat United ↓

Thai Honda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chainat United or draw
47%
Chainat United or Thai Honda FC
77%
Draw or Thai Honda FC
76%

Winning margin

Chainat United wins by 2+
10%
Thai Honda FC wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Chainat United 1+ goals
69%
Chainat United 2+ goals
33%
Chainat United 3+ goals
11%
Thai Honda FC 1+ goals
84%
Thai Honda FC 2+ goals
54%
Thai Honda FC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Chainat United (draw refunded)
32%
Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat United at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Thai Honda FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat United attack 0.67 + Thai Honda FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Thai Honda FC attack 1.33 + Chainat United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chainat United scores more
24%
level
23%
Thai Honda FC scores more
53%

Thai Honda FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Thai Honda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chainat United vs Thai Honda FC

Chainat United beat Thai Honda FC 1-0 in FA Cup on June 27, 2018.