Chainat United 1–5 Air Force Central FC

Chainat United

1 – 5

Air Force Central FC

3/27/2019

FA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chainat United16%

×Draw18%

Air Force Central FC66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chainat UnitedExpected goals in this matchAir Force Central FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

2.50

Chainat United

1.17

Air Force Central FC

2.50

Air Force Central FC creates 114% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

2.67

2.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Chainat United

0.67

Air Force Central FC

2.67

allows per match

Chainat United

2.33

Air Force Central FC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chainat United+0.00on par

Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat United ↓

Air Force Central FC →

0–03%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–44%

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Chainat United or draw

34%

Chainat United or Air Force Central FC

82%

Draw or Air Force Central FC

84%

Winning margin

Chainat United wins by 2+

Air Force Central FC wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Chainat United 1+ goals

69%

Chainat United 2+ goals

33%

Chainat United 3+ goals

11%

Air Force Central FC 1+ goals

92%

Air Force Central FC 2+ goals

71%

Air Force Central FC 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Chainat United (draw refunded)

20%

Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Chainat United at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Air Force Central FC away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Chainat United attack 0.67 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Air Force Central FC attack 2.67 + Chainat United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Chainat United scores more

16%

level

18%

Air Force Central FC scores more

66%

Air Force Central FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Air Force Central FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff