Chadormalu SC 1–0 ZOB Ahan: Result & Stats

Chadormalu SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ZOB Ahan

Matheusinho 45'

11/1/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 10Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chadormalu SC44%

×Draw32%

ZOB Ahan24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chadormalu SCExpected goals in this matchZOB Ahan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.74

Chadormalu SC

1.11

ZOB Ahan

0.74

Chadormalu SC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 100 away

1.15

creates per match

0.91

0.58

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Chadormalu SC

1.15

ZOB Ahan

0.91

allows per match

Chadormalu SC

0.58

ZOB Ahan

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

ZOB Ahan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw

76%

Chadormalu SC or ZOB Ahan

68%

Draw or ZOB Ahan

56%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

18%

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

67%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

30%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

10%

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals

52%

ZOB Ahan 2+ goals

17%

ZOB Ahan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

65%

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.58 · 26 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.15 + ZOB Ahan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

ZOB Ahan attack 0.91 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more

44%

level

32%

ZOB Ahan scores more

24%

Chadormalu SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

S. Mosleh

33'

M. Azarpad

45+1'

O. Latifi

45'

Matheusinho

46'

P. Ghazipour← A. Mosleh

56'

K. Kamyabinia

63'

H. Shoushtari← K. Kamyabinia

64'

S. Mohammadifard← A. Khodadadi

71'

Guilherme Pira← Matheusinho

76'

M. Mamizadeh← O. Latifi

76'

B. Bimenyimana← M. Tabrizi

81'

S. Khaghani← M. Azarbad

82'

M. Papi

82'

Edson Mardden

83'

84'

Wallace← H. Habibinejad

84'

M. Moslemi← R. Mahmoudabadi

84'

Alaa Al Dali← A. Yahyazadeh

90+10'

Wallace

Chadormalu

ZOB

12

Soufiani

40

Gerami

5

Soleimanz

69

▼

Mosleh

4

Ghoreishi

2

Jeddi

11

▼

Kamyabini

23

▼

Azarbad

10

▼

Tabrizi

7

Aliyari

70

▼

12

5

27

34

10

▼

Habibinej

6

Taheran

20

Papi

13

▼

Mahmoudab

14

▼

Khodadadi

11

⚽

▼

Matheusin

19

▼

Yahyazade

Manager: S. Akhbari

64'▲S. Mohammadifard←▼A. Khodadadi

71'▲Guilherme Pira←▼Matheusinho

84'▲Wallace←▼H. Habibinejad

84'▲M. Moslemi←▼R. Mahmoudabadi

84'▲Alaa Al Dali←▼A. Yahyazadeh

Chadormalu SC substitutes

2Mohammadifard23Pira8Wallace30Moslemi9Dali

Manager: M. Rabiei

46'▲P. Ghazipour←▼A. Mosleh

63'▲H. Shoushtari←▼K. Kamyabinia

76'▲M. Mamizadeh←▼O. Latifi

76'▲B. Bimenyimana←▼M. Tabrizi

81'▲S. Khaghani←▼M. Azarbad

ZOB Ahan substitutes

19Ghazipour88Shoushtari9Mamizadeh28Bimenyimana79Khaghani