Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chadormalu SC vs Shahre Raz — Azadegan League 2018

Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
3/11/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 23Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chadormalu SC48%
×Draw29%
Shahre Raz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chadormalu SC
1.27
Shahre Raz
0.78

Chadormalu SC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chadormalu SC
1.29
Shahre Raz
0.65

allows per match

Chadormalu SC
0.90
Shahre Raz
1.26

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par
Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Shahre Raz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw
77%
Chadormalu SC or Shahre Raz
71%
Draw or Shahre Raz
52%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
22%
Shahre Raz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
72%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
36%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
14%
Shahre Raz 1+ goals
54%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
18%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
68%
Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Shahre Raz away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Shahre Raz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Shahre Raz attack 0.65 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more
48%
level
29%
Shahre Raz scores more
23%

Chadormalu SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Chadormalu SC 2–0 Shahre Raz

Chadormalu SC beat Shahre Raz 2-0 in Azadegan League on March 11, 2024.

The match was played at Nasiri Stadium in Yazd.