Chadormalu SC 1–0 Shahrdari Astara: Result & Stats

Chadormalu SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shahrdari Astara

9/3/2023

Azadegan League · Round 1Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chadormalu SC58%

×Draw26%

Shahrdari Astara16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chadormalu SCExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Astara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.65

Chadormalu SC

1.50

Shahrdari Astara

0.65

Chadormalu SC creates 131% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 84 away

1.29

creates per match

0.40

0.90

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Chadormalu SC

1.29

Shahrdari Astara

0.40

allows per match

Chadormalu SC

0.90

Shahrdari Astara

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Shahrdari Astara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw

84%

Chadormalu SC or Shahrdari Astara

74%

Draw or Shahrdari Astara

42%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

30%

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

78%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

44%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

19%

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

48%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

14%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

78%

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more

58%

level

26%

Shahrdari Astara scores more

16%

Chadormalu SC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff