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Chadormalu SC vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Azadegan League 2018

Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
4/6/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chadormalu SC44%
×Draw29%
Naft Masjed Soleyman27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chadormalu SC
1.25
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.92

Chadormalu SC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chadormalu SC
1.29
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.94

allows per match

Chadormalu SC
0.90
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.21

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw
73%
Chadormalu SC or Naft Masjed Soleyman
71%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
56%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
20%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
71%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
36%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
13%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
60%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
23%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
62%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more
44%
level
29%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
27%

Chadormalu SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chadormalu SC vs Naft Masjed Soleyman

Chadormalu SC and Naft Masjed Soleyman drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Nasiri Stadium in Yazd.