Chadormalu SC 1–0 Aluminium Arak: Result & Stats

Chadormalu SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aluminium Arak

R. Simisterra 70'

11/7/2025

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 10Nassiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chadormalu SC46%

×Draw33%

Aluminium Arak22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chadormalu SCExpected goals in this matchAluminium Arak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.65

Chadormalu SC

1.08

Aluminium Arak

0.65

Chadormalu SC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 86 away

1.15

creates per match

0.71

0.58

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Chadormalu SC

1.15

Aluminium Arak

0.71

allows per match

Chadormalu SC

0.58

Aluminium Arak

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Aluminium Arak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw

78%

Chadormalu SC or Aluminium Arak

67%

Draw or Aluminium Arak

54%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

19%

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

66%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

29%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

10%

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

48%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

14%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

68%

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.58 · 26 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.15 + Aluminium Arak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Aluminium Arak attack 0.71 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more

46%

level

33%

Aluminium Arak scores more

22%

Chadormalu SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

H. Habibinezhad

38'

R. Jafari

46'

A. Safari Laksar← R. Dehghan

63'

A. Khodadadi← M. Otazu

63'

R. Mirzaei← R. Mahmoudabadi

70'

R. Simisterra↳ S. Portocarrero

79'

S. Hosseini← A. Jahan Kohan

84'

S. M. Reza Hosseini← M. Mahdavi

85'

A. Taheran← H. Habibinezhad

89'

M. Khodayarifard← A. Houshmand

89'

A. Vatandoust← A. Ghanbari

90+3'

90+6'

90+2'

A. Arta← R. Simisterra

Chadormalu

Aluminium

1

Khalifeh

4

▼

41

2

26

10

▼

Kohan

9

Mehdipour

13

▼

Mahdavi

80

Kahrizi

78

Jafari

18

▼

12

2

5

34

33

A

Portocarr

10

▼

Habibinez

78

Khosravi

76

▼

Dehghan

20

▼

Otazu

11

⚽

▼

Simisterr

13

▼

Mahmoudab

Manager: S. Akhbari

46'▲A. Safari Laksar←▼R. Dehghan

63'▲A. Khodadadi←▼M. Otazu

63'▲R. Mirzaei←▼R. Mahmoudabadi

85'▲A. Taheran←▼H. Habibinezhad

90+2'▲A. Arta←▼R. Simisterra

Chadormalu SC substitutes

1Sedghi3Arta6Taheran7Khodadadi9Mirzaei27Fallah29Jabireh30Javid70Laksar77Mohammadhossein80Negahdari

Manager: M. Hosseini

79'▲S. Hosseini←▼A. Jahan Kohan

84'▲S. M. Reza Hosseini←▼M. Mahdavi

89'▲M. Khodayarifard←▼A. Houshmand

89'▲A. Vatandoust←▼A. Ghanbari

Aluminium Arak substitutes

3Sokhtanloo7Hosseini17Hosseini23Kamandlou27Latifi57Khodayarifard70Badragheh77Vatandoust88Tayefeh90Ezhdehakosh