Chaco For Ever 2–0 Sansinena: Result & Stats

Chaco For Ever

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sansinena

1/17/2021

Torneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio Juan Alberto García

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chaco For Ever54%

×Draw27%

Sansinena20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chaco For EverExpected goals in this matchSansinena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.76

Chaco For Ever

1.45

Sansinena

0.76

Chaco For Ever creates 91% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

1.62

creates per match

0.76

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Chaco For Ever

1.62

Sansinena

0.76

allows per match

Chaco For Ever

0.76

Sansinena

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chaco For Ever+0.00on par

Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaco For Ever ↓

Sansinena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chaco For Ever or draw

80%

Chaco For Ever or Sansinena

73%

Draw or Sansinena

46%

Winning margin

Chaco For Ever wins by 2+

27%

Sansinena wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chaco For Ever 1+ goals

77%

Chaco For Ever 2+ goals

42%

Chaco For Ever 3+ goals

18%

Sansinena 1+ goals

53%

Sansinena 2+ goals

18%

Sansinena 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chaco For Ever (draw refunded)

73%

Sansinena (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaco For Ever at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 45 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaco For Ever attack 1.62 + Sansinena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sansinena attack 0.76 + Chaco For Ever defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chaco For Ever scores more

54%

level

27%

Sansinena scores more

20%

Chaco For Ever at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chaco For Ever will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff