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Chaco For Ever vs Estudiantes S.l. — Torneo Federal A 2018

Chaco For Ever
Chaco For Ever
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estudiantes S.l.
Estudiantes S.l.
4/21/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Juan Alberto García (Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chaco For Ever54%
×Draw27%
Estudiantes S.l.19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaco For Ever
1.46
Estudiantes S.l.
0.74

Chaco For Ever creates 97% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 103 away

creates per match

Chaco For Ever
1.62
Estudiantes S.l.
0.72

allows per match

Chaco For Ever
0.76
Estudiantes S.l.
1.30

finishing

Chaco For Ever+0.00on par
Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaco For Ever ↓

Estudiantes S.l. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chaco For Ever or draw
81%
Chaco For Ever or Estudiantes S.l.
73%
Draw or Estudiantes S.l.
46%

Winning margin

Chaco For Ever wins by 2+
28%
Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chaco For Ever 1+ goals
77%
Chaco For Ever 2+ goals
43%
Chaco For Ever 3+ goals
18%
Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals
52%
Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals
17%
Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chaco For Ever (draw refunded)
74%
Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaco For Ever at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 45 matches

Estudiantes S.l. away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.30 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaco For Ever attack 1.62 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Estudiantes S.l. attack 0.72 + Chaco For Ever defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chaco For Ever scores more
54%
level
27%
Estudiantes S.l. scores more
19%

Chaco For Ever at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chaco For Ever will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Chaco For Ever 1–0 Estudiantes S.l.

Chaco For Ever beat Estudiantes S.l. 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on April 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Alberto García (Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco).