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Chaco For Ever vs CDJU Gualeguaychu — Torneo Federal A 2018

Chaco For Ever
Chaco For Ever
CANC
00:00
CDJU Gualeguaychu
CDJU Gualeguaychu
3/29/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · North - 25Estadio Juan Alberto García (Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chaco For Ever58%
×Draw25%
CDJU Gualeguaychu17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaco For Ever
1.60
CDJU Gualeguaychu
0.73

Chaco For Ever creates 119% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 56 away

creates per match

Chaco For Ever
1.62
CDJU Gualeguaychu
0.71

allows per match

Chaco For Ever
0.76
CDJU Gualeguaychu
1.59

finishing

Chaco For Ever+0.00on par
CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaco For Ever ↓

CDJU Gualeguaychu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chaco For Ever or draw
83%
Chaco For Ever or CDJU Gualeguaychu
75%
Draw or CDJU Gualeguaychu
42%

Winning margin

Chaco For Ever wins by 2+
32%
CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chaco For Ever 1+ goals
80%
Chaco For Ever 2+ goals
47%
Chaco For Ever 3+ goals
22%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals
52%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals
17%
CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chaco For Ever (draw refunded)
77%
CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaco For Ever at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 45 matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaco For Ever attack 1.62 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 0.71 + Chaco For Ever defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chaco For Ever scores more
58%
level
25%
CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more
17%

Chaco For Ever at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chaco For Ever will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chaco For Ever face CDJU Gualeguaychu (Torneo Federal A)

Torneo Federal A returns with Chaco For Ever hosting CDJU Gualeguaychu. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chaco For Ever host CDJU Gualeguaychu at Estadio Juan Alberto García (Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.