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Chaco For Ever vs Brown DE Adrogue — Primera Nacional 2026

Chaco For Ever
Chaco For Ever
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Brown DE Adrogue
Brown DE Adrogue
3/10/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 6Estadio Juan Alberto García

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Chaco For Ever44%
×Draw31%
Brown DE Adrogue25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaco For Ever
1.16
Brown DE Adrogue
0.80

Chaco For Ever creates 45% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 96 away

creates per match

Chaco For Ever
1.19
Brown DE Adrogue
0.85

allows per match

Chaco For Ever
0.75
Brown DE Adrogue
1.13

finishing

Chaco For Ever+0.00on par
Brown DE Adrogue+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaco For Ever ↓

Brown DE Adrogue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chaco For Ever or draw
75%
Chaco For Ever or Brown DE Adrogue
69%
Draw or Brown DE Adrogue
56%

Winning margin

Chaco For Ever wins by 2+
19%
Brown DE Adrogue wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chaco For Ever 1+ goals
69%
Chaco For Ever 2+ goals
32%
Chaco For Ever 3+ goals
11%
Brown DE Adrogue 1+ goals
55%
Brown DE Adrogue 2+ goals
19%
Brown DE Adrogue 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chaco For Ever (draw refunded)
64%
Brown DE Adrogue (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaco For Ever at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.75 · 81 matches

Brown DE Adrogue away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaco For Ever attack 1.19 + Brown DE Adrogue defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Brown DE Adrogue attack 0.85 + Chaco For Ever defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chaco For Ever scores more
44%
level
31%
Brown DE Adrogue scores more
25%

Chaco For Ever at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chaco For Ever will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chaco For Ever vs Brown DE Adrogue

Chaco For Ever beat Brown DE Adrogue 3-0 in Primera Nacional on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Alberto García in Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco.