Chacaritas 1–2 Santa Rita: Result & Stats

Chacaritas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Santa Rita

8/22/2020

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 3Estadio de Pelileo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Chacaritas44%

×Draw29%

Santa Rita28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChacaritasExpected goals in this matchSanta Rita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.93

Chacaritas

1.25

Santa Rita

0.93

Chacaritas creates 34% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 49 away

1.25

creates per match

0.69

1.18

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Chacaritas

1.25

Santa Rita

0.69

allows per match

Chacaritas

1.18

Santa Rita

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chacaritas+0.00on par

Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacaritas ↓

Santa Rita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chacaritas or draw

72%

Chacaritas or Santa Rita

71%

Draw or Santa Rita

56%

Winning margin

Chacaritas wins by 2+

20%

Santa Rita wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chacaritas 1+ goals

71%

Chacaritas 2+ goals

36%

Chacaritas 3+ goals

13%

Santa Rita 1+ goals

61%

Santa Rita 2+ goals

24%

Santa Rita 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chacaritas (draw refunded)

61%

Santa Rita (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacaritas at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 97 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacaritas attack 1.25 + Santa Rita defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Santa Rita attack 0.69 + Chacaritas defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chacaritas scores more

44%

level

29%

Santa Rita scores more

28%

Chacaritas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chacaritas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff