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Chacaritas vs El Nacional — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Chacaritas
Chacaritas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
El Nacional
El Nacional
E. Reyes 75'
R. D. de Jesus Ogonaga 28' (pen)
9/8/2021Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 31Estadio de Pelileo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chacaritas43%
×Draw27%
El Nacional29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chacaritas
1.34
El Nacional
1.05

Chacaritas creates 28% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

creates per match

Chacaritas
1.25
El Nacional
0.93

allows per match

Chacaritas
1.18
El Nacional
1.44

finishing

Chacaritas+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacaritas ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chacaritas or draw
71%
Chacaritas or El Nacional
73%
Draw or El Nacional
57%

Winning margin

Chacaritas wins by 2+
20%
El Nacional wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chacaritas 1+ goals
74%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
39%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
15%
El Nacional 1+ goals
65%
El Nacional 2+ goals
28%
El Nacional 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chacaritas (draw refunded)
60%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacaritas at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 97 matches

El Nacional away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacaritas attack 1.25 + El Nacional defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

El Nacional attack 0.93 + Chacaritas defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chacaritas scores more
43%
level
27%
El Nacional scores more
29%

Chacaritas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chacaritas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
R. D. de Jesus OgonagaPenalty
64'
A. Cela
75'
E. Reyes
77'
J. Detona

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chacaritas 1 – 1 El Nacional

Chacaritas and El Nacional drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 8, 2021.

Goals: R. D. de Jesus Ogonaga (28' pen), E. Reyes (75').

The match was played at Estadio de Pelileo in Pelileo.